2019-nCoV: 2/1/20 UPDATE -- Africa and nCoV -- How far has the novel coronavirus already spread unrecognized?

Dr. Daniel Lucey, who has responded to, and monitored information on outbreaks since 2001, has provided a series of updates and analysis on the outbreak, now an epidemic of 2019-nCoV, the novel coronavirus identified in Wuhan China, since Jan. 7. He continues to respond to development and data on the outbreak here.

In today’s World Health Organization 2019-nCoV Situation Report the very helpful map below is shown with global locations of reported confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus (nCoV). Of note, there are zero cases reported from anywhere on the African continent.

This absence of recognized cases is unlikely to reflect the reality on the ground. Given the high flow of traffic between Africa and China,* it is not plausible to believe there are truly zero cases in all of Africa.

Instead, as noted in the Jan. 31 WHO African Regional Office (AFRO) posting on its coronavirus website states: “Since this is a new virus, there are currently only two referral laboratories in the African region which have the reagents needed to conduct such tests…”

*WHO ramps up preparedness for novel coronavirus in the African region - WHO has identified 13 top priority countries -- which either have direct links or a high volume of travel to China.”